Pure FX Blog

Euro Climbs As Greece Stares Default In The Face

Here is our account of the political and economic factors that affected the exchange rates overnight. To find out how they affected your currency transactions, don’t hesitate to contact us.

Exchange Rate Changes

This is a table of the gains in currency you could have achieved in the past month, trading at the high compared to the low:

GBPEUR: +1.235%
GBPUSD: +3.556%
GBPCHF: +1.316%
GBPAUD: +0.812%
GBPNZD: +0.673%
GBPCAD: +1.516%
EURUSD: +4.508%

Good morning!

The euro has gained ground against the pound and US dollar this morning, as investors continue to treat a Greek debt deal as a dead cert. This is in spite of the fact that, overnight, the ruling coalition government in Greece was at loggerheads with itself regarding additional spending cut demands. The government ignored yet another EU-imposed deadline to make a deal, as ministers argued whether imposing a 1.5% budget cut (demanded by EU officials) was reasonable. In the meantime, Greece moves but closer to defaulting. It must be restated though, that for the moment the market considers a deal a sure thing, prompting euro strength.

Elsewhere in Europe, the division in market confidence between Northern and Southern European nations continues to widen. Though Greece is drowning in debt, German factory orders increased 1.7% last month beating forecasts. This could aid the perception that the Germans (as European paymasters) are in a position to dictate terms to Greece.

Turning to the UK, sterling has lost ground both against the euro and commodity currencies like the New Zealand dollar this morning. This is both because investors remain certain a Greek deal can be made, and because data from the UK has disappointed. For instance, house prices dropped 1.8% in Jan according to Halifax, indicating the housing market remains under pressure. Furthermore, retail sales dropped 0.3% last month according to the British Retail Consortium.

Looking ahead in Britain, this disappointing data (in addition to the fact that Britain contracted –0.2% last quarter) could prompt the Bank of England to step up its quantitative easing program this week. This could prompt additional pound weakness.

Coming Up

The following important economic releases are due later this week. There might hence be movement in the exchange rates at these times.

Tue 7th Feb 2012

11.00 German industrial production
15.00 US Ben Bernanke speech
15.00 US TIPP economic optimism
20.00 US consumer credit change

In addition, to learn how this data has affected your foreign exchange transactions, feel free to get in touch. You can also call us on +44 (0) 1494 671800 or email enquiries@purefx.co.uk.

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