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5 Reasons EUR May Exceed Its 13-Week High Versus GBP in July 2018

Market Commentary5 Reasons EUR May Exceed Its 13-Week High Versus GBP in July 2018
5 Reasons EUR May Exceed Its 13-Week High Versus GBP in July 2018
Image credit: Jorge Vincente.

Welcome to Pure FX's latest outlook for the euro to pound interbank exchange rate.

This tells you that the euro may rise against the pound, looking ahead, for your money transfer!

The common currency could climb versus sterling!

The euro to pound interbank exchange rate has hit 0.8861 today, close to its highest in 13 weeks, or since March 11th.

What's more, in July 2018, the euro may fly further against the pound. Here are 5 reasons why:

1. German chancellor Angela Merkel has reached an agreement with her interior minister Horst Seehofer to set up "transit centres" for migrants.

This may boost the euro, because Mrs. Merkel's agreement with her interior minister boosts the stability of Mrs. Merkel's coalition government, and German politics.

2. Eurozone unemployment held steady at 8.4% in May, said Eurostat on Monday, above financial market forecasts for a rise to 8.5%.

This could lift the common currency, because this tells us that the Eurozone's labour market remains steady, even though the economy has slowed slightly recently.

3. UK prime minister Theresa May may struggle to unite her cabinet over what they want for Brexit, at a meeting at Mrs. May's country resident Chequers this week.

This may weaken the pound, because if Mrs. May's cabinet continues to fight over what they want for Brexit, this may cause uncertainty among UK businesses, and hurt GDP growth.

4. European negotiators told UK prime minister May yesterday that her plan to stay in the EU's Single Market for goods after Brexit is unrealistic.

This could weigh on sterling, because European negotiators' stance highlights that they're prepared for a "No Deal" Brexit between the UK and the EU.

5. "UK economic activity lacks the muscle to trigger a [Bank of England interest rate hike] in August in line with market expectations," according to UBS Global Wealth Management this week.

This may drag down the pound, because if the Bank of England keeps interest rates at 0.5%, rather than hiking to 0.75%, this will make investing in UK assets less profitable.

With all this in mind, the euro to pound interbank exchange rate could fly above its 13-week high in July 2018!

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Please bear in mind, this article is Pure FX’s opinion only and does not constitute advice. Moreover, the exchange rates referred to in this article are the interbank rates, which are the rates at which banks and financial institutions buy and sell currency to each other. Therefore these exchange rates cannot be accessed by individuals or SMEs, and are not the same rates that Pure FX can offer. To get a free exchange rate quote, call us on +44 (0) 1494 671800, or email peter.lavelle@purefx.co.uk.

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