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Euro Reaches Fresh 8-Month High Versus Pound, Could Continue to Climb

Market CommentaryEuro Reaches Fresh 8-Month High Versus Pound, Could Continue to Climb
Euro Reaches Fresh 8-Month High Versus Pound, Could Continue to Climb
Image credit: Jorge Vincente.

Welcome to Pure FX's latest forecast the euro to pound interbank exchange rate.

This tells you what may happen next to the euro to pound exchange rate, for your money transfer!

The common currency continues to fly versus sterling!

The euro to pound interbank exchange rate has reached its highest in 8 months today, or since November 15th 2017, at 0.8956.

What's more, looking ahead, the euro may strengthen further against the pound. This is because:

_1. UK retail sales unexpectedly fell by -0.5% in June, said the Office for National Statistics on Thursday, below forecasts for a +0.4% rise. _ This may weaken the pound, because retail sales are a big UK economic motor. Hence, falling retail sales points to slower UK GDP growth.

2. UK inflation held at +2.4% in June, according to official data this week, below financial market predictions for a rise to +2.6%.

This could drag down sterling, because when UK inflation stays constant, this suggests that the UK economy is too weak to lift price pressures.

3. What with UK retail sales and inflation below forecasts, the Bank of England is under less pressure to hike UK interest rates in early August, to 0.75%.

This may weigh on the pound, because when the Bank of England keeps interest rates steady, investing in UK assets is less profitable for money managers.

4. Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned this week that, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, it will have "big economic consequences".

This could hurt sterling, because Mr. Carney's remarks highlight the importance of the UK agreeing a favourable Brexit deal before the March 2019 end date.

5. UK prime minister Theresa May is under attack from both hard "Brexiteers" and soft "Remainers" in her Tory party, for her Brexit policies.

This may push down the pound, because Mrs. May's difficulties within her own Tory party slow down the UK's Brexit negotiations with the EU.

As a result, the euro to pound interbank exchange rate has hit this fresh 8-month high today, and may fly higher, looking forward!

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Please bear in mind, this article is Pure FX’s opinion only and does not constitute advice. Moreover, the exchange rates referred to in this article are the interbank rates, which are the rates at which banks and financial institutions buy and sell currency to each other. Therefore these exchange rates cannot be accessed by individuals or SMEs, and are not the same rates that Pure FX can offer. To get a free exchange rate quote, call us on +44 (0) 1494 671800, or email peter.lavelle@purefx.co.uk.

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