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EUR Nears 2-Week High Versus USD, as Trump Tariffs May Hurt USA

Market CommentaryEUR Nears 2-Week High Versus USD, as Trump Tariffs May Hurt USA
EUR Nears 2-Week High Versus USD, as Trump Tariffs May Hurt USA
Image credit: Patrycja Cieszkowska.

Welcome to Pure FX's latest update of the euro to US dollar interbank exchange rate.

This tells you when it's a fantastic time to exchange euros to US dollars, for your money transfer!

The common currency flies higher versus the greenback! The euro to US dollar interbank exchange rate has hit 1.1717 today, its highest since June 14th, or close to 2 weeks.

The euro has strengthened against the US dollar, because US President Donald Trump is continuing to threaten trade restrictions on China and the EU, which may slow America's economy.

The buck has lost out, in particular because, following announcements that the USA may impose $200bn of tariffs on China, Mr. Trump is also threatening a 25% tariff on EU car imports.

What's more, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said yesterday that restrictions on buying US firms apply "to all countries that are trying to steal our technology", thus weighing on the buck.

This has weakened the US dollar, first because Mr. Trump's trade protectionism hurts America's relationship with its closest trade partners, which in turn could slow the USA's GDP growth.

This has also dragged down the buck, because if America's economy slows, fewer investors may place money in the USA, making it tougher for America to fund its -2.5% current account deficit!

Euro Strengthens, as Eurozone Business Activity Accelerates

Furthermore, the euro to US dollar interbank exchange rate has also strengthened, because Eurozone business activity unexpectedly accelerated in June, said closely-watched data last week.

The euro has shot up, because IHS Markit's Eurozone composite PMI reached 54.8 this month, well above forecasts for 53.9, pointing to increasing output in the currency bloc's economy.

"The release does provide a silver lining", according to Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING. This signals solid Eurozone economic growth of +0.5% in Q2, thereby boosting the euro.

Also, the euro has climbed, because Italy's new populist government has confirmed that it has every intention of staying in the Eurozone, thus allaying concerns on the financial markets.

The euro has jumped, because Italy's new finance minister Giovanni Tria said recently that there's "no discussion" of leaving the common currency, in the new League/M5S populist government.

As a result, the euro has neared this 2-week high against the US dollar, and may rise higher!

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Please bear in mind, this article is Pure FX’s opinion only and does not constitute advice. Moreover, the exchange rates referred to in this article are the interbank rates, which are the rates at which banks and financial institutions buy and sell currency to each other. Therefore these exchange rates cannot be accessed by individuals or SMEs, and are not the same rates that Pure FX can offer. To get a free exchange rate quote, call us on +44 (0) 1494 671800, or email peter.lavelle@purefx.co.uk.

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