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Euro to The Pound Today: EUR/GBP Rate Reaches 13-Week High

Market CommentaryEuro to The Pound Today: EUR/GBP Rate Reaches 13-Week High
Euro to The Pound Today: EUR/GBP Rate Reaches 13-Week High
Euro Rates Today.

Are you a Brit living in Spain, France or Italy, and thinking of returning to the UK? Alternatively, are you a European citizen, planning to emigrate to the UK, to find work and buy a property?

If so, ahead of when you relocate from Europe to Great Britain, it may benefit you to know that the euro to the pound today has reached its highest in 13 weeks.

To be specific, the euro to pound interbank exchange rate has hit 0.8791 at the time of writing. This is the common currency's highest point versus sterling since February 15th, more than three months ago.

By contrast, back on May 4th, the euro was as weak as 0.8493 against the pound. So it's since strengthened by close to +3 cents, or by +3.5%.

To contextualise this rise in the EUR to GBP exchange rate for you, to help you decide when to transfer money to the UK, at today's interbank exchange rate of 0.8791, €250,000 in pounds would be £219,775.

By contrast, at the euro to pound interbank exchange rate's low point on May 4th of 0.8493, €250,000 would have been worth just £212,325.

So on the same euro total, compared to two weeks ago, that's an extra £7,450.

With this in mind, when you transfer money to the UK from Spain, France or Italy, you might now get a higher GBP total in your British bank account, compared to the recent past.

Whether you're exchanging currencies to return to the UK having lived overseas, or a European citizen intent on starting a new life in Great Britain, this higher interbank exchange rate may be useful to you.

A big reason why the euro to pound interbank exchange rate has hit this 13-week high is because the Conservatives and Labour's cross-party Brexit talks have collapsed. In turn, this may accelerate Prime Minister Theresa May resignation in coming weeks.

Let's look more closely at how this has lifted the value of the euro versus sterling, ahead of your money transfers.

EUR to GBP Rate Rises, as Cross-Party Brexit Talks Break Down

A first factor why the euro to the pound interbank exchange rate has strengthened is because, last Friday 17th May, the Conservative and Labour Parties' cross-party Brexit talks collapsed.

In turn, it's thought that this may hasten Prime Minister Theresa May's resignation, and lifts the odds that the UK will pursue a "hard" Brexit, at the deadline of October 31st.

Last Friday, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn announced that he was ending the negotiations between his party and the Tories.

In a letter to the Prime Minister, which Mr. Corbyn released to the press, Mr. Corbyn said that talks "have gone as far as they can". This is because of "the increasing weakness and instability" of Mrs. May's government, reports The New York Times.

In particular, Mr. Corbyn argued in his letter that, even if he and Mrs. May reached an agreement, "there cannot be confidence in securing whatever might be agreed between us."

This is because it's thought that Mrs. May will resign as Prime Minister as soon as next month, in June, and whoever replaces Mrs. May might not respect her bargain with Labour.

Also, it's worth noting that both Mrs. May and Mr. Corbyn were under growing pressure to end the talks, from within their parties.

For example, according to the BBC last Friday, at Labour's latest meeting of the Shadow Cabinet, senior Labour figures called for “an immediate halt to the talks". This is because Labour prefers to force the government to call a general election, so that Labour can take power.

Meanwhile, it's thought that Tory attitudes toward reaching a deal with Labour had hardened last week, ahead of the European Parliament elections this Thursday 23rd May.

This is because it's forecast that the Tories might poll last out of the six parties, the Tories' worst result at an election for over a century. This is as voters opt to support Nigel Farage's recently-formed Brexit Party.

With this in mind, the UK's two main political parties' Brexit talks have broken down. This lifts the odds that the UK might exit the EU without a deal, at the end of the extended deadline on October 31st.

In turn, this might reduce the UK's economic prosperity in future, without shared regulations with our closest trading partner. So this has weakened the pound.

Euro Strengthens Versus Pound, as May Closer to Resign

In addition, a further explanation why the euro to pound interbank exchange rate has hit this 13-week high is because, following the collapse of the Tories' and Labour's cross-party Brexit talks, it's thought that Theresa May will resign sooner as Prime Minister.

Financial markets are concerned that a "hard" Brexiteer, such as former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, might replace her.

Last week, Downing Street announced that Mrs. May would present her draft Brexit deal for MPs to vote on for a fourth time, on the week starting June 3rd.

On Mrs. May's previous three attempts, the House of Commons voted down the Prime Minister's draft by large margins. This was both because of Labour opposition, and from divisions within her own Conservative Party.

This time, following the collapse of negotiations with Labour, it's predicted that the Prime Minister's draft Brexit bill will again fail. This is because Mrs. May is still yet to command support among a majority of Members of Parliament.

In particular, the Conservatives' influential, hard-Brexit European Research Group (ERG) has announced that it will once more vote against Mrs. May's deal.

If Mrs. May's deal is defeated, as looks likely, it's predicted that the Prime Minister will resign. This is because pressure among Conservative MPs for Mrs. May to give up her post has been immense, for several months.

To be specific, the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs has repeatedly asked Mrs. May for her exact timetable about when she intends to resign.

However, if the Prime Minister quits, this would further complicate the UK's Brexit outlook.

First the Tories would have to dedicate several weeks to electing a new leader and Prime Minister, while the deadline to October 31st draws nearer. This would give the UK less time to decide a form of Brexit, and present Great Britain's preferred form of Brexit to Europe.

Second, it's thought likely that, if Mrs. May resigns as Prime Minister, a "hard" Brexiteer will replace her, who'll pursue Brexit at any cost to the UK economy.

For example, last Thursday at a business event in Manchester, former Foreign Secretary and frontrunner Boris Johnson declared that: "Of course I'm going to go for it”, reports the BBC.

Were Mr. Johnson to become Prime Minister, the UK might exit the EU without a deal, on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms. This would create trade barriers and tariffs to imports and exports with the EU, with whom the UK does roughly half its international trade.

This could slow the UK's future economic growth. Given this, the euro to the pound today has hit this 13-week high.

UK Inflation, Retail Sales Figures May Affect Euro Vs Pound Rate

Meanwhile, looking ahead to this week, in addition to Brexit, several major UK economic releases could affect the euro to pound interbank exchange rate.

For example, this Wednesday 22nd May, UK inflation data for April is released, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It's predicted that UK price pressures rose by +2.2% in April, up from March's figure of +1.9%.

If UK inflation figures hit +2.2% in April, this would exceed the Bank of England's (BoE) 2.0% target. In turn, this would increase pressure on the UK's central bank to lift interest rates, from their current 0.75%, to put a lid on rising prices.

In turn, higher UK interest rates make buying British assets more profitable, which raises demand for sterling. So higher UK inflation this Wednesday may affect the pound.

In addition, UK retail sales statistics for last month are released this Friday 24th May, by the ONS. Global money managers and economists reckon that UK spending on the high street fell by -0.4% in April, below March's +1.1% rise.

If so, this might contribute to slow the UK's (Gross Domestic Product) growth over the Spring, so could influence the euro to pound exchange rate too.

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Please bear in mind, this article is Pure FX’s opinion only and does not constitute advice. Moreover, the exchange rates referred to in this article are the interbank rates, which are the rates at which banks and financial institutions buy and sell currency to each other. Therefore these exchange rates cannot be accessed by individuals or SMEs, and are not the same rates that Pure FX can offer. To get a free exchange rate quote, call us on +44 (0) 1494 671800, or email peter.lavelle@purefx.co.uk.

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